A Monster Substantial Severe Weather, Tornado Outbreak is Looking Likely

..........SUMMARY..........
A significant #severeweather outbreak is now anticipated for Monday and Tuesday across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Lousiana, Mississippi, and even Alabama. Several #tornadoes, some that could be strong, very large #hail, damaging 80+ mph winds

Detailed Discussion - For TX, OK, AR, LA
The latest global and Hi-Res 06z outputs strongly advertise a substantial shortwave trough that will eject out of New Mexico and be in place into western texas at the beginning of the 12z period. A surface low will rapidly deepen still over southeastern CO and help to increase a very strong LLJ from the south, while low-level cloud cover and cooler surface temps in the mid to upper 50's over northern and eastern TX will help keep this environment capped through 17 to 20z, however latest outputs of the models still show the LLJ increasing to around 60 to 75kts will aid in strong theta-e air and rich boundary layer moisture into this region and steepening mid-level lapse rates that will help to erode the capping inversion, however to what extent northward will this occur remains unclear. Further south into central TX, boundary layer cooling will likely be halted due to increasing moisture return and earlier destabilization. Here MLCAPE is forecasted to reach 2000 j/kg topped with 7.1 to 8.2 C per 1km lapse rates and substantial veering winds with hight to yield a SIG severe for supercells capable of all severe hazards including a few tornadoes that may be intense. However, a more substantial tornado threat looks to still evolve for eastern TX, just east of DFW, Waco, TX, and east of the I35 corridor where more rich moisture advection will take place within the warm sector nosing into southeastern OK, this will occur beneath very strong Low-level wind fields of 65 to 80 kts with significant veering to a southwesterly flow at the 500mb level. This environment will contribute to MLCAPE as high as 1750-2000 j/kg and substantial 0-1 km curving hodographs very low LCL's and LFC's will mean really low cloud bases. This favors numerous intense, fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards including several tornadoes some could be strong with wedges and stovepipes. Supercells that are able to jump ahead of the warm front into OK may present severe weather concerns with large hail and damaging winds mainly since these storms will likely be more elevated north of the warm front.

Tuesday's Severe Weather Outbreak: Eastern TX, LA, AR, MS, AL
The latest global model outputs still mainly indicate a discrete supercellur mode early on in the forecast period beginning at 12z Tuesday. Even so this will be a nocturnal event to start off, the boundary throughout LA should remain uncapped and strongly shared. In fact, the LLJ may continue to increase to around 70 to near 80 kts from the south with 700mb and 500mb flow from the southwesterly direction, this will likely lead to crazy substantial 0-1 km hodographs with very big curved storm slinkies from central LA into southwestern and central MS which means 0-1 km SRH values may approach 450 to near 600 m2/s2 which may support a substantial tornadic outbreak in a narrow corridor from Alexandria, LA.....Baton Rouge, LA points northeast into Central MS. Yes, I said a possible tornadic outbreak with numerous long-tracked tornadoes with possible several that could be strong and a couple that may be Violent. While it's far out still, this setup if trends continue will warrant a Moderate risk for sure on my Day 3 outlook. Very large hailstones are likely with any given supercell structure and damaging 80+ mph winds. Even so clustering may occur with this setup or even brief linear segments, the strongly sheared environment could be supportive of intense embedded supercells within multi cells and within any liner segments that pose a big threat for long-lived/tracked tornadoes that may be particularly dangerous or violent.

Forecaster.........David Schlotthauer

DISCLAIMER:
All of my videos and live streams are for entertainment purposes only and to discuss raw operational model guidance and its ensembles, I'm also comparing models too. So please seek official sources like the National Weather Service or The Weather Channel for more detailed and accurate information.

Youtube Chapters:
0:00 - Intro/Promotion
1:03 - Radar Forecast
7:07 - Severe Weather Recipe Monday
8:12 - Skew-T Soundings
9:21 - 9:21 - Supercell Composite
11:48 - Significant Tornado Premeter
14:12 - MLCAPE/MLCIN
16:01 - Dewpoints
17:59 - Theta-E Values
19:08 - Wind Dynamics
22:24 - Severe Weather Recipe Tuesday
23:31 - MLCAPE/MLCIN
24:06 - Dewpoints Tuesday
24:29 - Wind Dynamics
26:27 - Storm Prediction Center Outlook
27:55 - Outro/Promotion

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